[23/2/13] Daily brief- CPI 6.2, Core CPI 5.5 forecast

 

Inflation data will test 'disinflation' optimism: What to know this week

January's CPI report could challenge the narrative that inflation is trending down across a growing range of sectors in the U.S. economy.

 

 

The economic calendar is packed to the brim in the week ahead, but inflation data will be most important to investors.

January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set for release Tuesday will be heavily scrutinized, particularly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the presence of "disinflation" in the U.S. economy.

 

Economists expect headline CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month in January, a notable jump from figures seen in recent months.

New seasonal adjustments released by the BLS on Friday also switched December's initial reading of a 0.1% monthly drop in headline inflation to an increase of 0.1% in the year's final month.

 

While the monthly CPI figure likely rose in January, the annual headline number is projected to come down to 6.2% from 6.5% the prior month, consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy components of the report and is closely tracked by the Fed, is forecast to show a 0.4% rise over the month — on par with the upwardly revised 0.4% increase in December.

 

On an annual basis, economists expect core CPI rose 5.5% over the year, down modestly from the annual 5.7% in December.

---

1. CPI는 미국시간 화요일 발표될 예정이다

2. 1월 Headline CPI는 전월대비 0.5 상승을 예상함

3. 1월 Monthly CPI는 상승할 것으로 예상하지만, Annual Headline CPI는 6.5에서 6.2로 감소할 것으로 예상한다

4. Core CPI는 전달대비 0.4 상승할 것으로 예상된다

5. 년간 기반 core CPI는 5.5 상승으로 예상한다, 이는 12월 5.7에서 다소 하락한 것이다