| 비트코인 [로이터] |
[헤럴드경제=장연주 기자] 비트코인 가격이 2025년까지 약 5배 가까이 폭등할 것이란 전망이 나와 눈길을 끈다.
31일(현지시간) 비즈니스 인사이더에 따르면,
투자은행 번스타인은 비트코인 가격이 반감기와 현물 ETF 승인 호재에 힘입어 2025년 중반까지 15만 달러를 돌파할 것으로 예상했다.
이날 고탐 추가니 번스타인 글로벌 디지털 수석 전략가는 투자 보고서에서 "비트코인 반감기 이벤트가 가격 상승의 원동력으로 작용할 것"이라고 강조했다.
비트코인 반감기는 약 4년을 주기로 전체 발행량이 제한된 비트코인의 채굴 보상이 절반으로 줄어드는 현상을 뜻한다.
그는 "역사적으로 비트코인 가격이 반감기를 거치며 큰 폭의 상승랠리를 기록했다"며 "내년 4월로 예정된 비트코인 반감기 이벤트가 암호화폐 시장에 큰 호재로 작용할 것"이라고 덧붙였다.
그는 또 지난 12개월 동안 비트코인 토큰 가운데 약 70%가 팔리지 않은 점을 지적하며 "투자자들이 우리만큼 비트코인을 좋아하지 않을 수 있지만, 반감기를 계기로 비트코인 가격 사이클이 상당한 전환점을 맞게 될 것"이라고 강조했다.
Bitcoin is set to rocket to $150,000 by the middle of 2025 as the world's largest cryptocurrency begins a new cycle, Bernstein says
- Bitcoin could soar 337% to hit $150,000 by mid-2025, according to analysts at Bernstein.
- While April's halving will reduce supply, demand will jump on the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.
- "You may not like bitcoin as much as we do, but a dispassionate view of bitcoin as a commodity suggests a turn of the cycle."
Bitcoin will soar 337% to $150,000 by mid-2025 as the world's largest cryptocurrency begins a new cycle, according to analysts at Bernstein.
In a note initiating coverage of crypto miners, Bernstein said bitcoin is on the brink of potentially big industry market moves, including bitcoin's upcoming halving and the likely approval of the first spot bitcoin ETFs.
"You may not like bitcoin as much as we do, but a dispassionate view of bitcoin as a commodity suggests a turn of the cycle," the report, led by Global Digital Senior Analyst Gautam Chhugani, said. "A good idea is only as good as its timing."
According to the note, bitcoin historically has rallied whenever there's a halving, a predetermined event in which the amount of bitcoin received for mining the crypto is slashed. This happens every four years, with the next halving set for April 2024.
As halving essentially cuts down on bitcoin supply, crypto miners are less likely to sell accumulated tokens, because they anticipate higher future prices. Already, 70% of bitcoin tokens have not sold in the last 12 months, Bernstein pointed out.
At the same time, the currency is undergoing increased demand from new buyers, especially with the Securities and Exchange Commission expected to approve spot bitcoin ETFs soon.
Though the SEC originally tried to block such efforts, its rejection of a Grayscale crypto ETF was defeated in court in August, potentially paving the way for a regulatory turnabout.
"We expect US regulated ETFs to be the watershed moment for crypto and we expect a SEC approval by late 2023/Q1, 2024," Chhugani wrote. "Post halving, we expect the bitcoin spot demand via ETFs to outstrip miner selling by 6-7 times at peak. We expect bitcoin ETFs to be equivalent to 9-10% of spot bitcoin in circulation by 2028."
Analysts expect bitcoin to rally into the ETF approvals and the initial post-approval response, followed by some profit-taking going into halving, then a "major inflection" after halving.
Halving will also have implications on the crypto mining industry, leading to more consolidation. As the amount of rewarded tokens drops, high-cost miners will face the most pressure, and the least efficient of them will likely not survive, leading to consolidation.
Instead, Chhugani points investors towards two miners worth paying attention to: Riot and CleanSpark.
Calling them a "high-beta way to gain exposure," the note cited their low power cost in mining tokens, high liquidity, and unlevered balance sheets. Both were given outperform ratings.
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